ASTANA – Kazakhstan’s economy grew 4.2% in the first nine months of 2026, supported by non-oil sectors, rising private investment and expanding industrial production, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin said at a government meeting on Oct. 13.
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The non-resource sector grew 5.4%, while construction, manufacturing, transport services and trade accounted for more than 75% of overall gross domestic product (GDP) growth, according to Zhumangarin.
The figures point to continued economic expansion beyond the extractive sector, although inflation remains elevated despite a slight slowdown in September.
Private investment drives economic growth
Investment in fixed capital reached 16.1 trillion tenge (US$35.7 billion), increasing 7% year on year over the first nine months of 2026.
“The distinctive feature is that private investment, which increased by 18.2%, is the main factor driving investment growth,” Zhumangarin said.
Gross foreign direct investment inflows reached $9.4 billion in the first half of the year. The strongest investment growth was recorded in manufacturing, up 40.1%, followed by construction at 32%, information and communications at 29.2%, healthcare at 20.4% and agriculture at 9.1%.
Kazakhstan’s economic structure has also continued to shift. The oil sector accounted for 7.8% of GDP in 2025, while manufacturing’s share rose to 14.1% and mining’s reached 12.4%, according to Zhumangarin.
Manufacturing expands as new plants open
Manufacturing output grew 8.6% in the first nine months of 2026, with particularly strong growth in light industry, which increased 62.4%. Chemical production rose 23.4%, while machinery manufacturing grew 22.8%.
Deputy Minister of Industry and Construction Kuandyk Kazhkenov attributed the expansion largely to new production facilities. Since the beginning of the year, Kazakhstan has launched 106 industrial projects, creating approximately 8,000 permanent jobs.
“Thanks to the implementation of these projects, the country has established production of new goods that were not previously manufactured domestically. These include sodium sulfate, drip irrigation systems, laminate flooring, aluminum capsules for coffee machines and other products,” Kazhkenov said.
A further 200 investment projects worth a total of 1.7 trillion tenge (US$3.77 billion) are planned for completion by the end of 2026.
Inflation slows, but price pressures remain
Annual inflation eased to 9.3% in September, down from 9.8% in August, Zhumangarin said. The government and the National Bank are continuing coordinated measures to reduce inflationary pressure. First Deputy Chairman of the National Bank Yerulan Zhamaubayev said the country’s business activity index reached 50.4 points in September, compared with 49 points in December 2025. The National Bank plans to maintain a moderately tight monetary policy alongside the government’s anti-inflation measures.
Kazakhstan’s financial buffers strengthened as well. Gold and foreign exchange reserves stood at $66.2 billion at the end of September, up 1.2% from the beginning of the year. National Fund assets reached $66.7 billion, an increase of 4.3%.
Exports and transit traffic gain momentum
Exports of goods and services increased 25.4% to $55.3 billion in the first half of 2026, according to figures presented at the government meeting. Transit cargo moving through Kazakhstan rose 13.1% in the first nine months of the year, underscoring the importance of the country’s transport networks to regional trade.
Railways carried 241.7 million tons of cargo, up 3% year on year, while road freight reached 270.4 million tons, an increase of 5.6%. Kazakhstan’s airlines transported 12.4 million passengers during the same period, up 4.2% from a year earlier.
The business activity index and rising lending also suggest continued economic activity across several sectors, although the figures alone do not establish how evenly growth is distributed across businesses or households.
Energy capacity expands to address supply constraints
Kazakhstan generated 91.7 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity in the first nine months of 2026. To help reduce electricity shortages, the country plans to commission approximately 2.4 gigawatts of conventional power capacity this year, Deputy Energy Minister Yerlan Akbarov said.
The planned projects include modernization of Almaty’s CHPP-2 and CHPP-3, with capacities of 557 megawatts and 544 megawatts, respectively, as well as a 1,000-megawatt combined-cycle power plant in the Turkistan Region. Additional upgrades are planned at the Atyrau combined heat and power plant. Renewable energy is also contributing to the power supply. Renewable energy facilities generated 7.8 billion kilowatt-hours in the first nine months, against a full-year target of 8.8 billion kilowatt-hours.
Seven renewable energy facilities with a combined installed capacity of 212.6 megawatts have entered operation this year. By year-end, the government plans to commission two solar power plants with a combined capacity of 30 megawatts and one hydropower plant with a capacity of 3.2 megawatts.
