ASTANA – Kazakhstan’s economic growth is projected to cool down to 4.5% in 2026 and 3.9% in 2027, according to the January edition of the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report.
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“As frontier markets, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have sustained robust per capita growth over 2000–25. However, Kazakhstan’s growth is projected to slow in 2026 as oil production stabilizes, and lower oil prices dampen export earnings and fiscal revenues,” reads the report.
The report noted that economic growth in Europe and Central Asia is expected to stay steady at 2.4% in 2026. Strong spending at home is helping offset weaker growth in the euro area and rising trade tensions. Growth is forecast to increase to 2.7% in 2027.
“More broadly, the pickup in regional growth next year reflects rebounding exports and rising private consumption amid easing inflation,” reads the report.
In 2025, economic growth in Europe and Central Asia reached 2.4% in 2025, and the slowdown reflects weaker household spending, especially in Russia, partly due to the delayed effects of high interest rates.
Trade grew slightly in the first half of the year, as companies increased shipments ahead of expected tariff hikes. Excluding Russia, Türkiye and Ukraine, growth across the region remained steady at 3.2%, with Central Asia continuing to be the fastest-growing subregion.
“External headwinds have persisted amid elevated trade policy uncertainty and subdued euro area growth, constraining exports—particularly in Central Europe and the Western Balkans’ automotive sectors. While the region has limited direct exposure to the U.S. market, it remains vulnerable through supply chain integration and spillovers from further softening in euro area growth,” reads the report.
In terms of inflation outlook, the report highlights inflation in Europe and Central Asia is expected to ease gradually in 2026 in most countries, helped by lower commodity prices. Yet it is likely to remain above central bank targets in many economies, suggesting policymakers will cut interest rates carefully.
Central Asia’s economy is expected to slow down over the next two years. Growth is forecast at 5% in 2026 and 4.6% in 2027.
“Private consumption is projected to soften amid high inflation, while Russia’s slowdown is likely to curb exports and remittances, which will be further pressured by tighter migration policies,” reads the report.
Risks to the economic outlook remain high. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the war in Ukraine, continue to create uncertainty across Europe and Central Asia.
Other risks include rising trade tensions, inflation staying higher than expected, and possible financial stress. Overall, uncertainty in the region remains elevated and is still higher than it was before the war.
“With each passing year, the global economy has become less capable of generating growth and seemingly more resilient to policy uncertainty,” said Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Development Economics.
“But economic dynamism and resilience cannot diverge for long without fracturing public finance and credit markets. Over the coming years, the world economy is set to grow slower than it did in the troubled 1990s, while carrying record levels of public and private debt. To avert stagnation and joblessness, governments in emerging and advanced economies must aggressively liberalize private investment and trade, rein in public consumption, and invest in new technologies and education,” said the expert.
