When I last visited Kazakhstan in October 2024 – just weeks before the U.S. presidential election – some of my remarks at the Astana Think Tank Forum may have struck some as contrarian or surprising. I argued that the U.S.-led unipolar world had already given way to a multipolar order, that economic and technological bifurcation amongst great powers would only deepen, and that middle powers like Kazakhstan would play a growing role in shaping this new emerging world. Seven months later, following the election of U.S. President Donald Trump and Washington’s reshaping of established economic systems, the geopolitical landscape is rapidly moving in that direction.
Darren G. Spinck.
Unipolarity did not erode by accident—it was fractured by the overreach and hubris of previous U.S. administrations, who sought to mold the world into a one-size-fits-all globalist model. In its place, a new global order is emerging. This post-globalist reality was addressed by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who acknowledged that the unipolar moment was an anomaly—and that today’s return to multipolarity signals a shift toward pragmatism. Reshaping economic connectivity in this post-globalization world will be guided by the Trump administration’s realism, influenced by rising middle powers like Kazakhstan, and shaped at international conferences such as the Astana International Forum (AIF).
As the AIF convenes this week, I hope Astana’s leadership and other policymakers from Central Asia and the South Caucasus will focus on a set of critical priorities that could redefine Kazakhstan’s role in the global economy and reinforce regional stability. From trade normalization to infrastructure connectivity and critical minerals, these issues demand coordinated action and strategic vision.
Normalize trade relations to attract investment and expand market access
To strengthen economic ties between the United States and Central Asia, Astana and other regional governments still affected by the antiquated Jackson-Vanik Amendment—which restricts U.S. commercial ties based on emigration policies—should pursue the repeal of the law in coordination with U.S. partners and seek permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status for Kazakhstan and all of its neighbors. The successful repeal of the Jackson-Vanik Amendment would send a clear signal to global investors about the prioritization of the region and unlock greater flows of foreign direct investment. U.S. engagement with Kazakhstan must extend beyond infrastructure and mining. There is significant potential to expand market access for both Kazakh and American companies across key sectors. Deeper cooperation in agriculture—through agribusiness joint ventures and shared innovations—would help secure resilient food supply chains if economic decoupling between great powers persists. Secretary Rubio has called the designation on Kazakhstan “an absurd relic of the past”, signaling the White House’s support if Congress demonstrates the political will to repeal the Jackson-Vanik Amendment. There is also hope that negotiations between Washington and Astana will lead to the reduction or removal of reciprocal tariffs and non-tariff barriers—steps that would enable Kazakhstan to pursue a more effective multi-vector trade policy, including stronger ties with the United States.
Realize the Middle Corridor’s strategic potential
Unlocking the full potential of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (Middle Corridor) requires a policy shift from focusing on fragmented national initiatives to a unified regional infrastructure strategy. As a strategic land-sea bridge connecting China, Central Asia, and Europe via the South Caucasus, Caspian Sea, and Turkey, the Middle Corridor must be supported by coordinated public-private collaboration. Development finance institutions in major economies should play a leading role, alongside the creation of a dedicated platform to mobilize capital, prioritize investments, and insulate the corridor from undue influence by any single power. In fact, a handful of colleagues of mine have written a detailed proposal for precisely such an entity – the Trans-Caspian Development Bank – and I expect the concept will gain traction in the coming months. Elevating the Middle Corridor as a true geoeconomic asset will strengthen regional supply chain resilience and global connectivity.
Invest in heavy rare earths to stabilize global supply chains
Kazakhstan is emerging as a critical anchor in the global supply chain for rare earth elements and other essential minerals. In an increasingly fragmented global economy, export restrictions—on rare earth elements, critical minerals, and magnets—risk triggering inflation, economic disruption, technological stagnation, and recession. No single power should be allowed to weaponize control over a sovereign nation’s natural resources. Strategic investment in Kazakhstan’s mining and processing capacity will ensure its vast mineral reserves are developed transparently and sustainably—reinforcing global supply chains while delivering lasting economic benefits to the Kazakh people.
As I return to Astana this week, I’m struck by how quickly the world is catching up to the realities we discussed just months ago. Central Asia is no longer on the periphery of global affairs—it’s becoming a central player in shaping what comes next. If policymakers act boldly—on trade, coordinated infrastructure development finance, and rare earth supply chain security—Kazakhstan can help build a more balanced and resilient global economy. I remain hopeful that this region will rise to meet the moment: by embracing its role as a strategic bridge between east and west, a trusted partner to great powers, and a model for middle power leadership in a more complex world.
Darren G. Spinck, a research fellow for the Henry Jackson Society, a U.S.-based think tank.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of The Astana Times.
