ASTANA – Kazakhstan’s water future may depend less on how much water reaches its rivers than on when it arrives. Climate change is shifting snowmelt, glacier runoff and river-flow peaks across Central Asia, forcing the country to rethink how it stores, forecasts and uses water.
A view of the Tian Shan mountain peaks near Almaty, Kazakhstan. Photo credit: Reuters
For centuries, Central Asia’s mountains have acted as a natural water-storage system. Snow accumulates in winter, glaciers store water as ice, and meltwater feeds rivers during the warmer months. But that seasonal balance is changing.
Central Asian glaciers experienced their most severe year of ice loss on record in 2025, losing an estimated 30 cubic kilometers of ice, equivalent to nearly 2% of the region’s remaining glacier volume, according to a study published in Environmental Research Letters in May.
Kazakhstan has more than 2,400 glaciers covering approximately 930 square kilometers, according to data maintained by the Central Asian Regional Glaciological Center. Earlier estimates recorded 2,724 glaciers nationwide. In the Ile Alatau, the glacierized area declined by 47.4% between 1955 and 2021.
The changes have implications for regional water security: glacier melt accounted for approximately 25% of annual river discharge in the northern Tien Shan during 1991-2021, while 44.3% of Kazakhstan’s average annual surface-water resources originate beyond its borders.
When the water arrives matters
Tomas Saks, a senior researcher at the Department of Geosciences at the University of Fribourg, said snow cover remains the dominant source of river runoff in Central Asia, accounting for around 70-80% of total runoff.
Glaciers provide a smaller share annually, around 6-10% for the Syr Darya and Amu Darya. Their importance rises sharply during dry summer months, when most seasonal snow has already melted.
“In the dry summer seasons, when most of the snow has already melted, glaciers contribute up to 80%, making them a crucial water resource for the dry summer months,” Saks told The Astana Times.
This means glacier retreat is not simply a matter of declining annual water volumes. One of the first major changes is seasonality.
Saks expects the Syr Darya’s peak runoff to shift from roughly July-August towards May-June as snow melts earlier. Summer runoff is then expected to decline as glacier volumes decrease. The Amu Darya is also projected to reach its peak earlier, although its larger, higher-elevation glaciers are expected to continue supplying significant summer meltwater for longer.
Planning for a changing water calendar
Kazakhstan is adapting its water policy to this shift. The country’s Water Code, adopted in 2025, incorporates climate adaptation into water-sector management. The Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation told The Astana Times that it is now assessing long-term water availability at the basin level.
The ministry expects to complete eight basin plans by the end of this year. The Balkhash-Alakol, Aral-Syr Darya and Shu-Talas basins have been identified among the most climate-sensitive because of high water demand, snow- and glacier-fed rivers and dependence on transboundary flows.
For Saks, this basin-level approach is important because climate change will not affect every river in the same way.
Storage can buy time
Kazakhstan plans to build 42 new reservoirs, adding 2.6 billion cubic meters of storage, while modernizing existing reservoirs and irrigation infrastructure.
However, reservoirs cannot create water; they can only store it when it is available. That makes efficiency increasingly important. The ministry plans to reconstruct or modernize more than 4,600 kilometers of irrigation canals. This year alone, 962 kilometers are expected to be upgraded, improving water supply to around 200,000 hectares of irrigated land.
As Saks’s projections suggest, the challenge is not simply to store more water, but to capture it when it arrives and use it efficiently when it is needed.
Data is part of the solution
Saks also stressed the importance of turning scientific knowledge into timely decisions.
Central Asia has substantial research on glacier and snow-cover changes. But if snowmelt and river-flow peaks are moving earlier, governments need better forecasts of when water will arrive in each basin.
Kazakhstan is developing a National Information System of Water Resources to integrate information on water bodies, infrastructure, water users and water availability, strengthening monitoring and forecasting. Warning signs may appear long before glaciers disappear: earlier snowmelt, lower late-summer river flows, changes in smaller glacier-fed catchments, and growing pressure on irrigation systems.
A regional water system
Kazakhstan alone cannot manage the changes that Saks describes. Water resources are concentrated mainly in the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan, while major demand is downstream in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Changes in snow and glacier melt therefore affect the entire regional system.
As water flows become less predictable, Saks said, cooperation between upstream and downstream countries will become increasingly important. For Kazakhstan, stronger data-sharing, forecasting and agreements over transboundary rivers will be essential.
Preparing for a different future
A “post-glacier” water system does not mean a future without glaciers or rivers. It means a future in which glaciers can no longer be assumed to provide the same seasonal buffer they have provided for generations.
Kazakhstan is responding with new reservoirs, modernized irrigation, basin-level planning and better forecasting. The real test will be whether these measures allow the country to anticipate changes rather than react to shortages.
In 2030 and onward, water security may depend not only on how much water Kazakhstan has, but on how accurately it can predict when that water will arrive and how efficiently it can use every drop.
