ASTANA – Kazakhstan has entered a new investment cycle that is beginning to change not only the volume but also the structure of capital entering the economy, according to the country’s leading financial analyst Rassul Rysmambetov.
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While the country remains dependent on extractive industries, growing investment in manufacturing, processing and high-technology production suggests that the long-discussed shift toward a more diversified economy is beginning to take shape.
“We can already confidently speak about the beginning of a structural shift. It is still too early to say that we are moving away from the resource-based model, but the figures show that the state is now moving toward a non-resource model not just in words, but in practice,” Rysmambetov said in a comment to The Astana Times.
From investment growth to structural change
The change is visible in investment data. Between 2019 and 2025, investment in fixed capital in Kazakhstan increased from 12.6 trillion tenge (US$27.3 billion) to 23.5 trillion tenge (US$51 billion), while investment in manufacturing tripled from 1 trillion (US$2.2 billion) to 3 trillion tenge (US$6.5 billion). The sector’s share of total investment rose from 8.1% to 12.7%, reported the Prime Minister’s press service on Aug. 31.
Foreign investment is also diversifying. Gross foreign direct investment reached $20.5 billion in 2025, up 14.4%. Investment in manufacturing increased by 47.4%, or $1.4 billion, while investment in mining fell by 47%, or $3 billion. The changing composition suggests Kazakhstan is attracting more capital into activities beyond raw-material extraction.
This trend is supported by the growing pipeline of industrial projects. The Kazakh Invest portfolio currently includes 215 projects worth $78.6 billion, with more than 88,000 jobs expected to be created. Of these, 93 projects worth $32.2 billion are already being implemented, while 122 projects worth $46.4 billion remain under development.
A new system for turning capital into projects
The government is seeking to reinforce this shift through a new investment-support system. Since 2025, a three-level investment attraction model has been operating, with regions identifying priority projects and targeting investors. Fast Track mechanisms, investment headquarters and a “prosecutorial filter” are intended to reduce administrative barriers, while the National Digital Investment Platform provides monitoring and coordination.
Investment agreements are another part of the framework. Since the mechanism was introduced in 2021, 66 agreements worth more than 17.8 trillion tenge (US$38.6 billion) have been concluded. In 2025 alone, 30 agreements worth nearly 11.2 trillion tenge (US$24.3 billion) were signed. By August, another 25 agreements worth approximately 4.4 trillion tenge (US$9.5 billion) had been concluded.
The approach reflects a broader shift in investment policy: attracting capital is increasingly being linked to specific economic needs, including import substitution, exports, localization and the development of domestic supply chains.
The real test is what happens after investment
The quality of this investment, however, will ultimately matter more than the headline figures, Rysmambetov said. In his view, the next test is whether new factories generate exports, domestic value added, higher productivity and better-paid jobs.
“Investments should not simply increase gross output, but also increase labour productivity and real wages,” he said.
This distinction matters as Kazakhstan expands projects in pharmaceuticals, agricultural processing, food production and digital infrastructure. New pharmaceutical plants are expected to localize production of hundreds of medicines, while projects by international companies in agriculture and food processing are designed to create demand for domestic suppliers.
Large-scale projects such as Dalian Hesheng Holdings’ $739 million wheat-processing complex, Fufeng Group’s $340 million corn-processing plant and Tiryaki Agro’s approximately $320 million agro-industrial complex illustrate the move toward deeper processing. Rather than exporting agricultural commodities with limited processing, these projects aim to produce starches, gluten, amino acids, protein isolates and other higher-value products.
Beyond factories: building domestic technological capacity
A similar logic is emerging in digital infrastructure. The planned Data Center Valley near Ekibastuz is being developed as a major computing and artificial intelligence hub, with investment potentially reaching $30 billion and energy capacity expanding from 300 megawatts to 1 gigawatt. In June, Kazakhstan signed a $10 billion package of agreements with Firebird and NVIDIA covering AI and digital infrastructure.
For Rysmambetov, however, industrial diversification must be accompanied by stronger domestic technological capacity. He pointed to limited spending on research and development and underused laboratories at universities and enterprises as areas requiring greater attention.
“Industry often relies on ready-made engineering solutions from abroad instead of developing them internally,” he said, arguing that Kazakhstan needs greater investment in R&D, industrial analytics and applied research.
From foreign capital to domestic value
The international dimension is equally important. Kazakhstan’s ability to attract capital from the UAE, Qatar, Singapore, China, the United States and European countries gives the country access not only to financing but also to technology, markets and supply chains. The challenge is to ensure that foreign investment creates lasting links with domestic businesses rather than operating as isolated production facilities.
The emerging investment cycle therefore represents a transition rather than a completed transformation. Manufacturing’s growing share, rising non-resource investment, and the expansion of processing industries provide evidence that Kazakhstan’s economic structure is changing.
The decisive indicators over the next several years will be whether these projects reach operation, increase exports, deepen domestic value chains, raise productivity and stimulate innovation.
“The transformation has begun. But to replace the economic model, we still need some time – three to five years,” Rysmambetov said.
