ASTANA — Kazakhstan is projected to join the ranks of high-income countries by 2028-2029, according to macroeconomic forecast from the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) released on March 13.
Photo credit: EDB.
According to the EDB forecast, Kazakhstan has made significant economic progress over the past three decades. The country’s real GDP per capita has more than tripled, outpacing global trends. By comparison, the world’s per capita GDP grew by 1.8 times, developed economies by 1.7 times, and emerging markets by 2.6 times. Life expectancy has increased by 11 years, reaching 75, while unemployment has dropped by six percentage points to 4.8%. Extreme poverty has nearly disappeared.
EDB Chief Economist Evgeny Vinokurov highlighted key factors driving Kazakhstan’s move into the high-income countries.
“Economic diversification and investment attraction remain top priorities, supported by state initiatives to develop infrastructure and key industries. In 2024 alone, 180 investment projects worth 1.3 trillion tenge (US$2.6 billion) were implemented in the manufacturing sector, which saw nearly 6% growth — the highest rate in a decade. Over the past four years, the sector share of GDP has grown by an average of 1.7 percentage points compared to the 2015-2019 period,” he said.
The machine-building industry, in particular, has performed well. Its contribution to industrial growth rose to three percentage points on average from 2019 to 2024, compared to near-zero levels in the four years since 2015.
Vinokurov highlighted that Kazakhstan’s broad economic reforms — focused on liberalization, reducing state involvement, and enhancing investor conditions — will be crucial in sustaining this progress. Major investment sectors include industry, energy, agriculture, transport, and logistics.
A new state support program for small and large businesses aims to assist over 50,000 projects annually. Funding is expected to reach 10 trillion tenge (US$20 billion) by 2027. These measures are laying the foundation for sustainable economic growth and higher income levels.
According to Vinokurov, achieving high-income status will unlock new opportunities, including greater investment appeal, improved economic resilience, and access to lower-cost financing.
“Most countries in the World Economic Forum’s top-30 competitiveness ranking are high-income nations, with the exceptions of Malaysia and China. Economies in this category typically demonstrate greater resilience to economic shocks, a pattern confirmed by empirical research. Additionally, improved investment attractiveness and economic stability will likely lead to higher credit ratings, making external capital more accessible. Kazakhstan’s credit rating could rise to “upper medium” investment grade from its current “lower medium” level, easing financing for infrastructure and industrial projects,” he said.
Vinokurov noted that while these improvements will strengthen Kazakhstan’s investment appeal, the transition will also require a shift in the country’s economic growth model, with priorities centered on international specialization, human capital development, and institutional reforms.
Global economic outlook for early 2025
EDB’s forecast also reviewed the past year’s economic performance and identified trends shaping the global economy and EDB’s member states.
According to the forecast, the global economy grew by 3.2% in 2024, driven by substantial expansion in emerging markets, which posted a 4.2% increase. India led with 6.5% growth, followed by Indonesia (5%), China (5%), and Brazil (3.7%).
The United States (U.S.) economy grew by 2.8% in 2024, driven by household consumption, but is expected to slow to 1.6% in 2025 due to declining consumer confidence, weakening business activity, and tighter monetary policy.
The EU economy expanded by just 0.7%, with rising energy costs and declining industrial output, particularly in Germany (-4.6%). These factors raise recession risks for 2025, especially if U.S. tariffs on European exports increase.
China’s GDP grew by 5%, supported by government stimulus and export growth ahead of U.S. tariffs. Early 2025 indicators suggest continued business expansion, focusing on fiscal stimulus and strategic investments.
Inflation remains high in advanced economies. U.S. inflation rose to 3% in January, while eurozone inflation eased slightly to 2.4% in February, driven by energy prices and structural factors.
