ASTANA — Kazakhstan’s transport and storage sector grew by 12.8% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, though momentum slowed across most segments. The mixed performance reflects both a high base effect and external pressures, according to a recent report published by the Halyk Finance Analytical Center.
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Asan Kurmanbekov, the center’s analyst, writes that despite maintaining double-digit growth, the sector’s performance moderated compared with the same period last year, when output expanded by 21% year-on-year. The slowdown reflects a high base effect, when previous strong growth makes current gains appear weaker, as well as external disruptions affecting key transport modes.
Uneven growth across segments
Asan Kurmanbekov.
According to the Bureau of National Statistics, freight transportation increased by 8% year-on-year, with road transport showing the strongest expansion at 20.4%. Rail freight also grew by 8%, while air cargo rose modestly by 3.2%, significantly below earlier double-digit gains recorded at the start of the year.
Other segments also declined. Pipeline transportation, closely tied to oil production volumes, fell by 5.3% after strong growth in 2025, while maritime transport declined by 1.1%.
According to Kurmanbekov, part of this divergence is linked to external factors, particularly geopolitical tensions. Air transport was among the most affected sectors due to the escalation of the war in the Middle East, which disrupted routes and reduced demand.
Pipeline transport was also affected by infrastructure disruptions, including issues with the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) and production challenges at major oil fields such as Tengiz.
Passenger trends and taxi expansion
Passenger transport grew by 9.3% year-on-year, slowing from 12.7% a year earlier. Rail passenger traffic declined by 1.6%, continuing a longer-term shift toward road-based transport. Road passenger transport expanded by 9.5%, also moderating from 13.1% in the same period last year. Within this segment, taxi services remained a key driver, with growth reaching 83.2%.
This increase is largely attributed to improved statistical coverage and digitalization, which brought previously unregistered taxi activity into official data. As a result, part of the expansion reflects more comprehensive measurement rather than purely new growth.
Structural factors and broader context
The report highlights the growing importance of transit flows through Kazakhstan, particularly along the China-Europe corridor. However, transit volumes are not yet fully reflected as a separate category in official statistics, potentially understating their contribution to the overall sector.
Broader economic conditions also influenced demand. Short-term economic indicators showed near-zero growth in the first two months of 2026, weighing on overall transport activity.
“The transport sector in the first quarter of the current year in the republic was noticeably affected by both internal and external shocks. External shocks had a pronounced impact on air freight transportation. Pipeline transport decreased against the backdrop of a combination of damage to transport infrastructure and accidents at the largest field in the country,” said Kurmanbekov.
According to him, road freight transport showed the strongest growth, though this was partly due to a relatively low base in the previous year. Passenger rail transport appears to be losing ground to road transport, and the taxi segment continues to expand rapidly due to broader statistical coverage of private operators.
“Relatively weak economic growth can also be noted at the beginning of this year. The short-term economic indicator, based on available data for the first two months of 2026, remained near zero, which also affected demand for transport services overall,” he said.
