ASTANA – Kazakhstan exported a record 76.3 million tonnes of crude oil in 2025, up 7.4% from the previous year and 20% from 2015, according to data from the Bureau of National Statistics. Italy remained the country’s largest buyer, while the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) continued to carry the bulk of Kazakhstan’s crude exports.
Photo credit: KMG.
Kazakhstan’s physical oil exports have generally increased over the past decade, rising from 63.6 million tonnes in 2015. The increase has been particularly pronounced in recent years. Kazakhstan exported 65.2 million tonnes in 2022, 71 million tonnes in 2024 and 76.3 million tonnes in 2025.
The growth coincided with record oil production. Kazakhstan produced 99.6 million tonnes of oil in 2025, with increased output at the Tengiz field among the factors contributing to the result. The country’s oil production target for 2026 is 96 million tonnes, down from 98 million tonnes after disruptions affecting the CPC.
In monetary terms, oil exports increased from $26.8 billion in 2015 to $40 billion in 2025, a 49.3% increase. The highest figure came in 2022, when oil exports were valued at $46.9 billion.
However, export volumes and value do not always move in the same direction. In 2025, Kazakhstan exported 7.4% more oil than in 2024, while export value fell 6.8%. The average calculated value per exported tonne fell from $604 to $524.
This illustrates the impact of global oil prices on export earnings: higher physical volumes do not necessarily translate into higher export revenue.
The $40 billion in oil exports represents the value of crude sold abroad rather than direct state revenue. Oil revenues are distributed among the companies and participants involved in production, transportation and investment, while the state receives revenues through taxes, special payments from subsoil users and its participation in oil and gas assets.
Italy remains the largest buyer
Italy was the largest destination for Kazakh oil in 2025, receiving 28.9 million tonnes worth $15.2 billion. The country accounted for 37.8% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports by volume and 38.1% by value. The Netherlands ranked second with 10.6 million tonnes worth $5.6 billion, followed by France with 5.6 million tonnes worth $3 billion, Romania with 5.3 million tonnes worth $2.6 billion and Greece with 4.3 million tonnes worth $2.3 billion. Together, the five largest markets accounted for more than 70% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports in both physical and monetary terms.
Other significant destinations included China, which received 3.8 million tonnes worth $2 billion; Türkiye, 2.9 million tonnes worth $1.5 billion; Germany, 2 million tonnes worth $1 billion; Singapore, 1.8 million tonnes worth $763.2 million; and South Korea, 1.5 million tonnes worth $807 million.
CPC remains key export route
The geography of Kazakhstan’s oil exports is closely linked to the country’s transportation infrastructure. The CPC remains the main export route. In 2025, it transported 64.8 million tonnes of Kazakh oil. Kazakhstan also continued exports through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan route at approximately 1.2 million tonnes per year. Azerbaijan has indicated that it is ready to increase its capacity to receive Kazakh oil to 2.2 million tonnes annually.
Diversifying export routes remains important for Kazakhstan as the country seeks to maintain reliable access to international markets.
Oil exports decline in first half of 2026
The export picture changed in the first half of 2026. From January through June, Kazakhstan exported 33 million tonnes of oil, down 6.7% from 35.4 million tonnes during the same period in 2025. Export value fell by a smaller margin, from $19.5 billion to $18.8 billion, or 3.6%. As a result, the average calculated value of an exported tonne increased from nearly $550 to $568.
Oil also accounted for a smaller share of Kazakhstan’s overall export revenue. Its share fell from 52.9% in January-June 2025 to 46.5% in the same period of 2026. At the same time, total exports increased from $36.8 billion to $40.3 billion, indicating a larger contribution from other commodity groups.
Italy remained Kazakhstan’s largest oil market during the first half of 2026, receiving 11.8 million tonnes worth $6.8 billion. The Netherlands followed with 4.4 million tonnes worth $2.5 billion, France with 3.2 million tonnes worth $1.9 billion, Türkiye with 2.1 million tonnes worth $1.3 billion and Greece with 1.9 million tonnes worth $1 billion.
Together, these five markets accounted for 70.9% of exports by volume and 71.8% by value. Other major destinations included Singapore (1.5 million tonnes), Romania (1.4 million tonnes), Spain and China (1.2 million tonnes each), and Germany (1 million tonnes).
Production and OPEC+ commitments
The decline in exports during the first half of 2026 coincided with lower oil production. Kazakhstan produced 45.7 million tonnes of oil during January-June.
At the same time, Tengizchevroil announced in July that it had reached design capacity following the expansion of the Tengiz field, with daily production reaching approximately 120,000 tonnes. The company expects to produce up to 40 million tonnes of oil in 2026.
Production and export levels are also influenced by Kazakhstan’s commitments under OPEC+. At a Sept. 6 meeting, participating countries, including Kazakhstan, agreed to maintain the production levels set for September in October. They also reaffirmed their commitment to complying with existing agreements. The next meeting is scheduled for Oct. 4.
For Kazakhstan, the significance of oil exports ultimately extends beyond the volume of crude sold abroad. Export revenues contribute to public finances through taxation and the National Fund, while oil companies also invest in infrastructure and social projects in producing regions.
As the country seeks to develop processing, petrochemicals and other higher-value industries, the longer-term challenge is to convert its natural-resource revenues into infrastructure, productive assets and human capital that can continue contributing to economic development beyond the period of strong dependence on oil.
