ASTANA – Kazakhstan’s resilient economic growth, moderate public debt and strong external buffers are strengthening its ability to access global capital markets despite tighter borrowing conditions worldwide, according to the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) September Macroeconomic Outlook.
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The EDB experts said the economy continued to expand this year, with GDP growing 4.1% year-on-year in January-July, while the non-oil sector increased by 5.4%. Construction rose 15.3%, manufacturing 9%, transport and warehousing 7.4%, and trade 5.9%.
“The key factor behind economic growth was the increase in output in the non-resource sector by 5.4% year-on-year,” the report said.
Investment activity also remained strong. Fixed capital investment increased 7.7% year-on-year to 11.5 trillion tenge (US$25.3 billion), supported by state-backed manufacturing projects and growing investment in electricity, information and communications.
At the same time, oil production fell 8.9% to 53.2 million tons in January-July, underscoring the need for continued economic diversification.
Annual inflation slowed to 9.8% in August from a peak of 12.9% in September 2025. The EDB expects inflation to moderate to 9.7% by the end of 2026, while the National Bank’s base rate stood at 16.25% in September.
“The strengthening of the tenge against the dollar by 8.5% since the beginning of the year reduces imported price pressure, while tight monetary conditions limit domestic demand,” the report said.
The report noted that Kazakhstan’s fiscal deficit widened to 1.7% of GDP in January-July, reflecting higher government spending and continued fiscal support for economic activity.
Kazakhstan’s external position remains a key strength. Gross international reserves stood at $63.3 billion as of Aug. 1, while National Fund foreign assets reached $66 billion.
The EDB also highlighted Kazakhstan’s improved sovereign credit standing. On Aug. 21, S&P Global Ratings upgraded Kazakhstan’s sovereign rating from BBB- to BBB with a stable outlook, citing the country’s economic resilience, substantial foreign exchange reserves and expectations of a declining non-oil deficit.
According to the EDB, Kazakhstan’s average public debt stood at 24% of GDP in 2023-2025, significantly below the average for selected A-rated economies. The bank projects the country’s gross public debt to rise moderately to 32% of GDP by 2031.
“Maintaining sustainable economic growth in a complex and rapidly changing external economic environment is another pillar of Kazakhstan’s investment attractiveness,” the report said.
According to the EDB experts, Kazakhstan retains the possibility of regularly accessing global capital markets “in the medium term on comfortable terms.” It added that the transition to the “A” category will depend on “the success of ongoing institutional reforms and the pace of economic diversification.”
The EDB’s regional outlook showed that the economies in its region of operations grew 1.5% year-on-year in the first half of this year, while Central Asian economies expanded by 6%. Domestic demand, investment activity and infrastructure projects remain key drivers of growth.
