ASTANA – Voter turnout in Kazakhstan has fluctuated considerably in recent national elections, with presidential contests drawing higher participation than the two most recent parliamentary votes, as experts point to party mobilization, geography and public trust as key factors.
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Turnout is not just how many people cast ballots. It can also offer insight into political engagement and parties’ ability to mobilize supporters, particularly in parliamentary elections centered on party competition.
Recent elections also suggest a difference between presidential and parliamentary contests. According to figures from the Central Election Commission, turnout reached 77.5% in the 2019 presidential election and 69.44% in the 2022 presidential vote, compared with 63.3% in the 2021 parliamentary election and 54.15% in the March 2023 parliamentary vote.
Aigul Sadvokasova. Photo credit: kisi.kz
Aigul Sadvokasova, director of the Almaty-based Institute of Philosophy, Political Science, and Religious Studies, said presidential elections tend to generate greater voter participation because the choice is centered more directly on individual candidates. Parliamentary elections, by contrast, depend more heavily on voters’ interest in political parties and their platforms.
Sadvokasova made the comments during an Aug. 13 meeting of the Sailau-2026: The Nature of the Political Campaign expert platform in Almaty, organized by the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of Kazakhstan.
Historically, national turnout figures also mask substantial regional differences.
For example, in the 2023 parliamentary election, participation varied sharply between Kazakhstan’s largest cities and several regions. Turnout ranged from 25.82% in Almaty to more than 60% in several regions.
Zhenisbek Tolen. Photo credit: kisi.kz
Zhenisbek Tolen, head of the Center for Educational Sciences and Social Development at Kazakhstan’s National Academy of Sciences, said regional electorates should not be viewed as homogeneous. Voters in regional capitals and remote districts, as well as younger and older people and different occupational groups, can have significantly different priorities.
“A region is not a single voter. It is made up of different social groups, and a party’s success depends on how effectively a strong local team can speak to each of them in a language they understand,” Tolen said, addressing the expert meeting.
Sadvokasova said turnout is shaped by a broader set of factors, including where voters live, trust in political institutions, access to information, whether citizens feel they can influence political processes and how competitive they perceive an election to be.
Those factors may take on an important role in a parliamentary election. Under Kazakhstan’s current electoral system, all 145 Kurultai deputies are elected through proportional representation in a single nationwide constituency, meaning voters choose a party rather than individual candidates within its list.
Dr. Ricardo Pelizzo. Photo credit: nu.edu.kz
In a comment to The Astana Times, Riccardo Pelizzo, dean of Nazarbayev University’s Graduate School of Public Policy, also emphasized the role of mobilization. Election results, he said, reflect not only voter preferences but also whether parties can persuade their supporters to actually cast ballots.
According to Pelizzo, who discussed voter turnout and electoral participation on The Astana Times’ podcast earlier this year, electoral success depends on the “ability to mobilize voters, to bring voters to the polls and to have high turnout levels.”
The Astana Times has followed the race through weekly reviews, from the parties’ initial policy pitches and regional campaigning to the first televised debate, an education-focused debate, and the final campaign week’s focus on the rule of law.
Experts say the current campaign has unfolded in a more active information environment, with parties stepping up outreach to voters and making greater use of televised debates and digital communications. But visibility during a campaign does not automatically translate into participation. One of the central challenges for political parties is sustaining voters’ interest through election day.
