ASTANA – Kazakhstan’s inflation is projected to decline to 8.2% in 2027, while economic growth is expected to accelerate to 4.9%, according to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest World Economic Outlook, released Oct. 13 at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok.
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The IMF forecasts inflation to fall from 11.4% in 2025 to 10.3% in 2026 before declining further next year. Economic growth is projected at 4.4% in 2026, rising to 4.9% in 2027.
The report also identifies Kazakhstan among the countries outside the Persian Gulf that increased oil production and helped the global market adjust to disruptions in supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
Kazakhstan’s economic outlook
The IMF expects Kazakhstan’s unemployment rate to remain at 4.6% in 2026 before easing to 4.5% in 2027. The country’s current account balance is projected to remain positive at 0.5% of gross domestic product in 2026.
Kazakhstan is also mentioned in the report’s assessment of the economic effects of the artificial intelligence boom. The fund identifies the country among commodity exporters benefiting from increased exports of technology-related goods produced by major Asian manufacturing economies.
Oil supply and the Strait of Hormuz
The report examines how the conflict in the Middle East disrupted global energy markets, with supplies through the Strait of Hormuz nearly halted in the spring. The disruption affected a route responsible for approximately 20% of global oil supplies, pushing prices to $126 per barrel in late March, according to the information cited in the report.
The IMF said the market adapted partly because countries outside the Persian Gulf increased production. Brazil, Kazakhstan, the United States and Venezuela were among those identified as helping offset the supply shortfall.
The report’s global outlook remains closely tied to developments in the Middle East. The IMF assumes that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in March 2027 and that shipping will return to previous levels by October 2027. Under this scenario, oil prices are projected to average $96 per barrel in 2026 and $87 in 2027.
Artificial intelligence supports global growth
The IMF raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 to 3.1%, up from 3% in its July projection. The global economy grew by 3.5% in 2025, while growth is expected to reach 3.4% in 2027.
The fund attributes the improved outlook partly to substantial investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure, which is helping offset the economic effects of higher energy prices and the prolonged conflict in the Middle East.
Economies building AI platforms and manufacturing the equipment needed to support them are among those receiving upgraded forecasts. The report highlights South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico and Thailand in this context.
According to Reuters, Petya Koeva Brooks, deputy director of the IMF’s Research Department, said the global economy would have grown more slowly in 2026 without measures taken by governments and businesses following the oil shock. These included drawing on inventories, finding alternative suppliers and reducing oil consumption.
However, the IMF cautions that the effects of these adjustments are weakening as the conflict continues.
The benefits of AI-related investment are also becoming increasingly concentrated. According to the report’s assessment cited by Reuters, 32 countries now account for 95% of global growth, compared with 54 countries in April. Since then, the IMF has downgraded its growth forecasts for 47% of the world’s economies.
Diverging growth prospects
The United States is projected to grow by 2.3% in both 2026 and 2027, supported by consumer spending, tax cuts and investment in AI. The IMF raised its 2026 growth forecast for the euro area from 0.9% to 1.1% and expects the United Kingdom’s economy to expand by 1.3%. Investment in AI is among the factors supporting these projections, alongside higher defense spending in Europe.
China’s economy is projected to grow by 4.5% in 2026 and 4% in 2027. Higher oil prices are weighing on domestic demand, although strong exports continue to provide support. India is expected to remain the fastest-growing major economy, with projected growth of 7% annually.
By contrast, the Middle East’s oil-producing economies face significant pressure. The IMF forecasts Saudi Arabia’s economy to contract by 3.3% in 2026, reversing its July projection of 1.7% growth. The fund also expects deep economic contractions in Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
Inflation and risks to the global outlook
Global inflation is projected to reach 4.7% in 2026 before easing to 4.1% in 2027. However, the outlook depends heavily on how the conflict in the Middle East develops and whether energy supplies recover as anticipated.
The IMF also highlights uncertainty surrounding AI investment. Faster adoption of the technology could add 0.6% to global gross domestic product by 2029. Conversely, if the expected productivity gains fail to materialize and investment falls sharply, global economic output could be 1.1% lower by 2028, with the United States facing a potential decline of 1.8%.
High public debt, particularly in advanced economies, presents another challenge. The IMF urges governments to rebuild fiscal buffers and establish credible plans to return public debt to sustainable levels.
“The global economy has proved resilient, but this resilience is reaching its limits, so we need to move from simply surviving to rebuilding,” the IMF’s chief economist, Silvana Tenreyro, said, according to Reuters.
