ASTANA — Kazakhstan’s economy grew 4.1% in the first seven months of 2026, maintaining the pace recorded in the first half of the year despite an 8.9% decline in oil production, reported the Ministry of National Economy on Aug.11.
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According to preliminary data from the Bureau of National Statistics (BNS), oil production totaled 53.2 million tons from January through July. Against that decline, the non-oil sector expanded by an estimated 5.4%.
Manufacturing remained among the strongest-performing sectors, growing 9% over the seven months. The fastest increases were recorded in pharmaceuticals at 38.5%, fabricated metal products at 35%, chemicals at 26.9% and mechanical engineering at 22%. Food production rose 13.9%, while building materials increased 9.4%. Growth was also recorded in construction at 15.3%, transport and warehousing at 7.4%, trade at 5.9%, agriculture at 5% and communications at 4.3%.
The figures point to a broader distribution of economic growth at a time when weaker oil output would normally weigh more heavily on overall performance. Economist Ruslan Sultanov said the latest data suggest growth is being generated across several parts of the economy rather than moving entirely in line with oil production.
“Growth is becoming more distributed. The BNS data show an interesting configuration: declining oil production is so far coinciding with the overall GDP growth rate being maintained. This has been possible because several sectors are growing simultaneously,” Sultanov wrote on his Tengenomika Telegram channel.
He also noted that high growth rates in individual industries do not necessarily mean they make an equally large contribution to GDP.
“What matters is their weight in the economy, the absolute volume of output and their ability to maintain this momentum over a longer horizon. The next point of assessment for the economy will be the quality of this growth: whether manufacturing, construction, transport, agriculture and trade can maintain their momentum and generate a sustainable contribution to GDP as conditions in the commodity sector change,” he said.
According to the ministry, the changing composition of growth reflects the gradual diversification of Kazakhstan’s economy, including stronger industrial capacity, development of transport infrastructure, support for domestic producers and small and medium-sized businesses, and increased investment in non-oil sectors. Oil extraction accounted for 7.8% of GDP in 2025.
Independent business indicators also point to activity across a broader range of sectors. In its second-quarter Business Activity Index report published July 28, Halyk Finance said the index stood at 55.2, above the neutral level of 50 that separates expansion from contraction, with growth recorded across manufacturing, construction, trade, transport, agriculture and most other major sectors. The index for small and medium-sized businesses reached 55.3.
The seven-month figures also show an improvement from earlier in the year. According to an April report by the Halyk Finance analytical center, Kazakhstan’s economy grew 3% year on year in the first quarter of 2026, when oil production fell nearly 20%, while manufacturing expanded 8.5%. By January-May, growth had reached 3.7%, according to a June 15 report by the International Monetary Fund.
The IMF projected Kazakhstan’s economy to grow approximately 4.6% in 2026, while identifying potential oil export disruptions, global uncertainty and inflationary pressures as key risks to the outlook.
