ALMATY – The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has published its forecast for Kazakhstan’s economic growth on Sept. 30, projecting GDP to expand by 5.3% this year and 4.3% in 2026, compared to earlier estimates of 4.9% and 4.1%.
Photo credit: Shutterstock
According to the ADB’s updated outlook, the improved forecast reflects continued state investment in infrastructure and increased natural resource production. By June, Kazakhstan’s economy surged 6.2% – the fastest pace in a decade – supported by strong performance in construction, manufacturing, services, and agriculture.
At the same time, the ADB raised its inflation forecast to 10.5% this year and 8.4% in 2026, citing rising utility tariffs and a weaker national currency.
Despite robust growth, imports are expected to outpace exports, leading to a persistent current account deficit. However, budget deficits are forecast to gradually narrow, as higher tax revenues offset growing social and infrastructure spending.
The ADB noted that Kazakhstan’s infrastructure modernization program and new tax code will provide additional support to long-term economic resilience.
Kazakhstan’s growth trajectory underscores its role as one of Central Asia’s fastest-growing economies, though challenges linked to inflationary pressures and external imbalances remain.
