ALMATY – The National Bank of Kazakhstan has published the results of its latest macroeconomic survey on Aug. 21, reflecting updated forecasts from leading analysts on key indicators such as Brent crude oil prices, economic growth, inflation, the base rate, exports, imports and the exchange rate.
Photo credit: National Bank of Kazakhstan
According to the survey, participants improved their outlook for Brent crude prices across the entire forecast horizon, reported the Kazakh National Bank press service.
For 2025, the median price estimate has risen from $68.9 to $69.5 per barrel, while projections for 2026 and 2027 also indicate stabilization at $69.5, compared to the previous expectations of $69.0 and $68.5 respectively.
Expectations for Kazakhstan’s economic growth have also strengthened. Analysts forecast the country’s GDP to grow by 5.2% in 2025, slightly higher than the earlier projection of 5.1%. Growth in 2026 is expected to reach 4.7%, up from 4.6%, while the 2027 estimate has been revised slightly downward to 4.4%.
Inflation expectations have shifted upward for the short term. Respondents now predict an inflation rate of 11.3% in 2025, compared to the previous forecast of 11%, and 9.5% in 2026, up from 9%. For 2027, however, inflationary pressures are expected to ease, with projections lowered from 7% to 6.5%.
Forecasts for the base interest rate remain unchanged at 16.5% through the end of 2025. In 2026, analysts expect a slight increase to 14.3% compared to the earlier forecast of 14%, while in 2027 the rate is projected to decline to 11.3% amid easing inflation.
Thirteen organizations took part in the survey, including professional market participants, research institutes, international organizations and rating agencies.
The National Bank noted that the results represent the independent views of experts and do not reflect the bank’s own forecasts, serving instead as an overview of market expectations regarding Kazakhstan’s economic trajectory and global market trends.
