ASTANA – Kazakhstan’s economy continues to grow faster than its sustainable potential, with domestic demand exceeding the economy’s capacity, Roberto Cardarelli, assistant director of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Middle East and Central Asia Department, said at a presentation of the Fund’s regional economic outlook.
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Cardarelli said signs of economic overheating persisted not only in Kazakhstan but also in Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan and the Kyrgyz Republic, where inflationary pressures remain elevated, Kazinform reported on Nov. 11.
He explained that potential economic growth represents the pace at which an economy can expand without generating additional inflationary pressure. When actual growth exceeds this level, demand can outstrip the economy’s ability to supply goods and services, contributing to rising prices.
“Of course, demand is there, and demand exceeds what the economy can sustain,” Cardarelli said, adding that Kazakhstan’s inflation performance compares favorably with that of many neighboring countries.
He also noted that regional governments are taking measures to ease overheating and bring economic growth closer to sustainable levels.
IMF outlook points to continued expansion
The comments come as the IMF’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook projects Kazakhstan’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) at $397.9 billion in 2026, rising to $553.4 billion by 2031.
The IMF forecasts real GDP growth of 4.4% this year, accelerating to 4.9% in 2027 before moderating to approximately 3.5-3.8% annually through 2031.
Nominal GDP per capita is projected to increase from $15,006 in 2025 to $19,311 in 2026 and $25,539 by 2031.
Inflation is expected to average 10.3% in 2026, compared with 11.4% in 2025, before gradually declining to 5% by 2031. The unemployment rate is forecast to decrease from 4.6% in 2025 to 4.3% by 2031.
President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev referred to the IMF’s economic projections in his recent state-of-the-nation address, noting that Kazakhstan is expected to rank among the world’s 50 largest economies by GDP.
Fiscal pressures and investment prospects
The IMF also projects an increase in government revenues and expenditures, with spending continuing to exceed income over the forecast period.
Government revenues are expected to reach 37.3 trillion tenge (US$82.7 billion) in 2026, while expenditures are projected at 39.3 trillion tenge (US$87.2 billion), resulting in a deficit of approximately 2 trillion tenge (US$4.4 billion).
The deficit could widen to 5.7 trillion tenge (US$12.6 billion) by 2031.
Public debt is projected to increase from 45.9 trillion tenge (US$101.8 billion) in 2026 to 93.9 trillion tenge (US$208.3 billion) in 2031. Its share of GDP is expected to rise from 23.8% to approximately 29.8% over the same period.
Investment is forecast to account for 28.4% of GDP in 2026, increasing to 32.2% by 2031.
The current account balance is expected to return to a surplus of $2.2 billion in 2026, following a $12.5 billion deficit in 2025. However, the IMF projects a return to deficits from 2027, potentially reaching $16 billion by 2031.
The IMF released its October 2026 World Economic Outlook on Oct. 13. Its separate Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia was published on Oct. 22.
